ARIZONA @ HAWAII

AUGUST 24TH 9:30 ET

ARIZONA (-11.5) @ HAWAII O/U 62.5

Hawaii +11.5 Over 62.5

Arizona 47 Hawaii 38

Following the Florida facedown is the gambler favorite, “The Hawaii Home Game”. Week 0 is the perfect tuneup Saturday to make sure that everyone is ready for non-stop football for the next six months. With the late-afternoon start to the Hawaii finish around 1 o’clock in the morning eastern time, this will be the best time to get the marathon going. Is the couch in a close enough spot to the fridge? Did you buy enough beer for seven hours of football? Is your bookie prepared for the barrage of bets that you have to place? This will be the time to get ready in the almost meaningless Arizona/Hawaii game.

The two biggest question marks to watch for in this game:
How sick is the lei that Hawaii coach, Nick Rolovich, is wearing?
How will Khalil Tate and Kevin Sumlins offense bounce back from their disappointing 2018 campaign?

Arizona’s Offense

This Saturday could be the day of the Tate’s. Tate Martell and Khalil Tate could be lighting up the scoreboard all day. Khalil was one of the most exciting players in college football in 2017, winning multiple Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week and with the additions of Sumlin and 2018 OC Noel Mazzone, Tate’s career was on pace to become one of the most electrifying players in College Football. 2018 had other plans for Tate and the Wildcats. Khalil Tate didn’t run the ball enough (1200 rushing yards in 2017 -> 250 rushing yards in 2018), Arizona’s offense never clicked, lost three road games by 25+ points, and gave up an embarrassing comeback to Herm Edwards and their rival Sun Devils to lose 41-40.

The Wildcats addressed their lack of offense by acquiring a couple of Ex-NFL players to fill coaching roles in the offseason. Demarco Murray will take over as the Running Backs coach while Kyle DeVan will try and patch up the offensive line productions as their position’s coach.

The skill positions for the Wildcats were consistent and efficient for the Wildcats when they were healthy. JJ Taylor (5’6, 184 Pounds) rushed for ~1500 yards, and IF he can stay healthy, he should be able to take off some of the pressure that Khalil Tate has behind a shaky offensive line.

Their receiving corps is filled with upperclassmen, non of which are world beaters, but can get the job done against the Pac-12 and Hawaii defenses.

The Wildcats offense success is tied to Khalil Tate returning to his 2017 form. With the breakout of JJ Taylor and the potential upgrade to the offensive line, Kevin Sumlin’s offense has the potential to be one of the most exciting and explosive offenses in the PAC-12.

Arizona’s Defense

Kevin Sumlin’s defense has been Sumlin’s weak point throughout his carrer, but nothing to the magnitude of how terrible Arizona was in 2017. The Wildcats ranked 119th in 2017 to where Sumlin improved the defense to a staggering 102nd in 2018. The 2019 defense lacks depth and is reliant on Freshman making a significant impact.

The linebacking core for Arizona will be the strength of the defense while the secondary raises big questions marks for anyone trying to predict scores of the game. The secondary is headlined by fifth-year-senior Jace Whittaker who was sidelined in 2018 due to an elbow injury. The rest of the secondary is surrounded by guys who have made a combined 44 starts. Which sounds like a bad thing, but with how terrible Arizona’s defense was – it could be the difference maker in the 2019 season.

The Wildcats gave up 30+ points in half of their games in 2018 and 40+ in three of their games. Their defense struggled on the road immensely in 2018 going (1-4) on the road with their only win against a terrible Oregon State team.

Kevin Sumlin might be cashing in his buyout clause if the Wildcats can’t make the turnaround from their horrendous 2018 season.

The Rainbow Warriors Offense

The Rainbow Warriors out of Hawaii. One of the best sports names out there. Long are the days from Colt Brennan and June Jones as its been 12 years since the ‘Bows made their run to the Sugar Bowl. Since then, they have only had one season with double digit wins. Hawaii has gone 58-86 since the departure of June Jones, but Nick Rolovich led the team to an 8-6 record in 2018. Rolovich is hoping to build off of the success of the 2018 season and to be back at the top of the MWC standings.

The ‘Bows identity of being a pass happy offense is beginning to come back as ,Junior Quarterback, Cole McDonald threw for 36 touchdowns and 3875 yards in the 2018 seasons. Cole McDonald lit up the MWC rankings, being #1 in total yards, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and touchdowns accounted for. 2018 was a magical season for McDonald as they started out 5-1, but Hawaii vs. the Travel Schedule won again.

McDonald in the first 6 games of the season: 26 Total TDs; 350 Avg Yards/Game; 2 INTs

McDonald in the last 7 games of the season: 12 Total TDs; 254.5 Avg Yards/Game; 7 INTs

McDonald, along with the Hawaii team, came out of the gate firing on all cylinders until the they began to lose the war of attrition. McDonalds overall season was still impressive, but you begin to see the effects of the Island come into play under the microscope.

Other skill positions

Star receiver, John Urusa, declared for the draft right after the Hawaii bowl, but the 2-3 WR for Hawaii will be back. Cedric Byrd and Jojo Ward combined for 18 touchdowns and should pick up the slack that Urusa had left behind.

Hawaii runs a Running Back by committee with the LB -> TE -> RB 250 Pound Fred Holly II and Miles Reed were the main backs, but McDonald was their main source of production on everything offense.

This Hawaii offense retained a good amount of starters from their 2018 season and should continue their offensive explosion behind the arms and legs of Cole McDonald.

Rainbow Warriors Defense

There’s only one thing to know about the Hawaii defense from 2018…they gave up 29.6 points in their 8 wins. 29.6. This put them at 118th in total defensive rankings in 2018. An improvement from 2017 where they were 123rd in the country.

The ‘Bows have a very aggressive mentality when it comes to defense which is great for short yardage downs and in the redzone, but the ‘Bows gave up on average two 40+ plays a game. They would get gashed for huge plays and killing any defensive momentum that they had gotten after getting a sack or TFL with this aggressive play style.

The good news for Hawaii is that most of their best players were freshman and sophomores and in their front 7. The biggest strength of this defense is the continuity from the 2018 season. Rolovich has done a great job on getting JUCO transfers to join the Island lifestyle to fill in any depth or gaps in this defense while keeping the guys he has now.

Hawaii’s best case scenario on defense in 2019 would be for the offense to score on every possession possible so that they can squeak out a few stops in the game. Or if the underclassmen make a huge jump and are able to limit the huge plays, Hawaii could be seeing a 8-10 win season against a very tough schedule (Home against Arizona, Oregon State; Away at Washington) in 2019.

Picks of the game

hawaii +11.5 Over 62.5

arizona 47 hawaii 38

On Paper, both of these defenses should be 100+ in total defense according to S&P+ while their offenses have the ability to score at will. Hawaii has been able to get off to incredible starts under Rolovich and has had a definite answer at who will be starting at QB for his first offseason during his tenure there. Cole McDonald should be able to take advantage of this Arizona defense early and often.

Khalil Tate and Arizona had nagging injuries throughout the 2018 season and will all be healthy to start this first game. I’m expecting Tate to be 100% healthy and back to his 2017 form to light up the young defense from Hawaii. Arizona should begin to pull away in the third quarter while Hawaii get a score or two late to keep this within a dozen.